It’s an election year in the U.S., and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Political advertising spending in 2024 was already forecasted to leap past previous records, and the recent assassination attempt on Donald Trump and President Joe Biden’s unexpected exit have injected new energy—and funds—into the race at the top of the ticket, and a new sense of urgency to all down-ballot contests.
从现在起到选举日，候选人及其支持者将如何使用新媒体资金？
电视政治广告：新闻媒体及其他
News programs are a natural fit for political advertisers, and figure 1 shows that, over time, they can reach as many viewers as sports, dramas and movies—and many more than comedies, documentaries, reality or suspense/mystery shows. Considering the ratings success Fox News, MSNBC and other national news networks are having this summer, the decision to spend heavily on news seems relatively straightforward.
但有两个重要的注意事项。
One is that there are massive audiences outside of news programs, as figure 1 clearly shows, and thus plenty of non-news ad inventory suitable for political advertising, too. People can watch the NFL or Love Island and still be receptive to political messages. That’s a good thing, especially when we consider how little news young voters are watching today: barely 15 minutes a week on linear TV for viewers under 35 (compared to 3 ½ hours for viewers over 35).
另一方面，如图 2 所示，一些新闻节目往往会吸引更多的民主党人或左倾观众，而不是共和党人或独立人士。例如，在 2024 年第二季度，我们估计有 70% 的民主党人或多或少收看过线性电视上的新闻节目，但只有 63% 的共和党人和 58% 的独立人士收看过。
对于新闻节目（或偏向右倾受众的体育和悬疑节目）来说，左右倾斜并不是一个不合格的因素，但这绝对是政治广告商在进行媒体规划时应该考虑的因素。
不同市场的蓝、红和未决定选民的年龄分布差异很大
青年选票将在本轮大选中发挥重要作用，但在美国各地，年龄与政治之间的关系远非一致。
當我們考察一些搖擺州媒體市場中左傾選民、 右傾選民和獨立（以及未決定）選民的年齡分 布時，我們可以看到各市場的年齡分布曲線大相 徑庭。圖3顯示，鳳凰城的左傾選民比右傾選民年輕得多，亞特蘭大的左傾選民比右傾選民年輕一點，邁阿密和西棕櫚灘的左傾選民與右傾選民年齡相同。在亚特兰大、迈阿密和西棕榈滩，独立选民和未决选民明显更年轻，但至少就年龄而言，他们与凤凰城的民主党选民非常相似。
2024 年，这些战场州的大多数竞选都将以微弱的优势获胜，独立选民很可能获得最后的胜利。聪明的政治广告商会知道他们需要在每个媒体市场接触哪些选民，才能让他们的候选人冲过终点线
流媒体应成为接触未决选民的优先选择
Streaming wasn’t much of an option four years ago for political campaigns, but it’s now the dominant form of TV viewing in the U.S.—especially among younger viewers—and it could play a major role between now and November.
In figure 4, we examined what share of left-leaning, right-leaning and independent voters used audio and video streaming over a recent week and found that in most markets, Independents outpaced their democratic and republican counterparts. Independents and undecided voters don’t necessarily watch as much traditional TV, and their social media activity isn’t fundamentally different from the rest of the population, but they’re more likely to be found on streaming platforms.
谁不想接触未决定的选民？
下一步是什么？
The battle is on for the hearts and minds of voters around the country, but the media landscape is much more complex this year than it was even four years ago. Today, people get their news from more sources, they use more platforms and devices and their overall media habits have changed considerably, too. It’s hard enough for advertisers to figure out who and where their targets are, let alone know what to tell them and in a way that is both authentic and convincing. Campaigns have their work cut out for them.
But the right data can help. Explore our dedicated U.S Election Data Hub for more insights. Between now and Election Day, we’ll be bringing our Nielsen data sources to bear to highlight important trends and help campaigns make the most of this year’s advertising opportunities.
