Brands and advertisers just now settling into a post-COVID marketing rhythm could be facing another major disruption, this time in the form of a global recession. With 60% of economists predicting a Euro-zone recession, and an expected global growth rate of only 2.9%—down from 4.6% at the beginning of the year—an economic slowdown seems inevitable.
And as consumers adjust their spending to adapt to inflation and higher interest rates, many brands and advertisers are following suit. According to data from Nielsen Ad Intel, the U.S. advertising marketplace shrank by 7% in the second quarter of 2022 versus the same time last year, signaling that many marketers expect, or have already experienced, cuts to their budgets.
但是，尽管削减媒体支出似乎是出于短期预算的考虑，但营销人员如果想减轻经济衰退的影响，最大限度地提高营销预算的有效性，就必须考虑到经济复苏--为经济复苏而支出。
经济衰退不会永远持续下去
对于担心经济长期低迷的营销人员来说，好消息是许多经济衰退都是短暂的--从历史上看，75% 的经济衰退在一年内结束，而整整 30% 的经济衰退只持续了两个季度。因此，任何开支的削减都可能只是短期的，只能带来名义上的节省，却会使品牌在进入反弹期时处于不利地位，而反弹期很可能就在眼前。
Considering most brands are already under-spending—depressing their ROIs by a median of 50%—any additional cutting of media expenses could only serve to reduce ROI further, at a time when brands need to maximize profits most.
The solution isn’t to slash the budget, but to optimize media mix and invest in channels that are performing well. Finding the right balance ensures that spending is properly allocated for reach, efficiency and frequency. For example, an auto manufacturer recently increased its reach by 26% and its impressions by more than 39% by simply optimizing its media allocation without adjusting its budget.
在经济衰退期间投资媒体，实际上可以为品牌节省开支，因为行业回调会产生有利于广告买家的供需动态，降低媒体成本。事实上，一些品牌在经济衰退时会加大媒体投资。除了有利的媒体成本环境外，品牌还可能发现竞争对手已经缩减了广告投放，这就为广告活动产生更大的影响创造了机会。
即使在经济衰退的情况下，增长也是可能的
Before assuming a slump in sales due to a recession, brands should assess the landscape and closely follow consumer behavior for changes in spending patterns. A shift in spending habits from large indulgences to small indulgences, for example, creates opportunity for growth in certain categories, like lipstick, while contracting others, like dining and hospitality.
随着消费者对价格越来越敏感，品牌也需要改变其媒体计划和信息传递方式。适合经济衰退的信息传播有助于强化品牌价值，确保消费者在经济衰退后仍保持忠诚度。
想要在经济衰退期间充分利用潜在的品类增长的品牌和广告商，应重点分析消费者行为，优化信息传递，提高广告支出的影响力。
正确切割
有时，削减预算是不可避免的。如果您知道必须调整支出，请确保您在正确的地方削减了正确的成本，以最大限度地提高剩余资金的效益，并将对投资回报率的负面影响降至最低。
And while pulling back on media spending may seem like the obvious way to cut costs and hit financial targets, the benefit can be relatively low. A Nielsen study of media plans found that only 25% of channel-level investments were too high to maximize ROI, and within this group, the median overspend amount was 32%. And while reducing spend would improve channel ROI by a modest 4%, brands would also see significantly reduced sales volume due to a drop in ad-driven sales.
It can also be tempting to increase promotions when consumers decrease spending, but this approach comes with its own challenges. Promotions done regularly can condition consumers to only buy when there is a promotion, leading to lower sales on regularly-priced items and margin compression. ROI also tends to be lower for promotions—45% lower than that of media, according to Nielsen marketing mix models—as only a small portion of promotional sales are truly incremental, and promo sales need to be much higher to make up for lost margins.
与其严重依赖促销活动，不如考虑可以减少或削减哪些渠道，从而将对投资回报率的影响降至最低。如果某个渠道的效果已经很差，那么最好完全砍掉它，将支出重新分配到指标更好、投资回报潜力更高的渠道上。
无论您最终决定采用哪种媒体组合和预算分配，请记住，任何花费都比没有花费要好。根据尼尔森营销组合模型，停播的品牌每个季度都会损失 2% 的长期收入，当他们恢复媒体工作时，需要 3-5 年才能挽回停播造成的资产损失。如果削减媒体支出，损失的不仅仅是底线--尼尔森的数据显示，营销占品牌资产的 10%-35%。
