在经济和社会环境的多重不确定性下，香港的广告支出依然谨慎。预计在线和离线广告支出的比例将从去年的 50/50 转向今年的 60/40，而广告投资回报率（尤其是在线广告投资回报率）的重要性将继续提高。
由于对就业前景和经济保障的担忧，香港消费者在消费方面日趋保守，消费者信心指数（CCI）在2019年第四季度达到83的新低，而2018年底时为99。在此背景下，香港的广告商预测，2020 年的形势将更加严峻。
The figures, which come from the latest Advertising Spending Projections Survey conducted by Nielsen in collaboration with the Hong Kong Advertisers Association(HK2A), show that brands will continue to use advertising to defend market share in the coming year. Advertisers predict most growth in the Pharmaceutical & Healthcare, Telecom & Technology and Packaged Food sectors and least growth in Luxury, Entertainment & Retail in 2020.
Half of the responded advertisers expect a decrease in advertising budget in 2020. Following a 1.4% increase in 2019, the advertising budget is expected to reduce 7.1% in 2020. The decline is mainly contributed by an 11% budget cut for offline advertising, while the budget for online advertising expands by a marginal 0.8%. It should be noted that the actual decline might be even deeper as the true impact of the coronavirus outbreak is not included in the research conducted from the end of 2019 to early 2020. The online advertising budget is set to increase for most online channels in 2020, led by video ad, paid social / social network and display ad, accounting for 11.4%, 11.3% and 10.7% of the total budgeted spend respectively. In terms of offline advertising, TV, print and event marketing will be allocated the most advertising budgets.
在这种情况下，由于越来越需要追求广告支出的投资回报率（ROI），因此预计在广告效果衡量方面会有更多投资。调查显示，大多数广告主（44%）表示，投资回报率计算是营销人员面临的头号挑战。调查显示，广告主更倾向于在 2020 年花费研究经费进行在线广告效果评估，这与在线广告将获得更多广告预算的结果相呼应。
在受访的广告主中，83%的人预计未来一年本地经济将出现下滑。他们普遍预计至少需要 6 至 12 个月的时间才会出现反弹，并感觉到。香港經濟在 2020 年可能會持續疲弱，並會面對很多不明朗因素。
"在当前经济形势不明朗的情况下，营销人员应时刻准备采用和整合新技术，以制定成功的营销策略。我们需要与不同的媒体平台保持同步，以充分利用各种机会。
事实证明，技术是确保及时、准确决策的最关键支持系统，而人工智能（AI）在实施过程中发挥着越来越大的作用。"对于那些懂得采用技术从竞争对手中脱颖而出的企业来说，严峻的经济形势可以成为一个很好的分水岭。尼尔森香港媒体副总裁吕丽娟（Clare Lui）认为："能否借助最先进的技术，明智、谨慎地分配广告预算，将潜在的危机转化为机遇，是来年企业生存的关键。
方法
The Advertising Spending Projections 2020 survey was conducted in two waves by Nielsen, from November 29, 2019 to January 14, 2020 for an online survey and from February 5 to 21, 2020 for executive interviews. The survey covered various commercial sectors including top-spending advertisers and concentrated on both their planned advertising spending and business focuses in 2020. Close to a hundred self-administered questionnaires were received from key advertisers and screened for final analysis, which provide timely reference on the trends of advertising expenditure, media selection and planning and the media landscape for 2020. Telephone interviews were also conducted with randomly selected advertisers for qualitative feedback.
