距离巴黎奥运会开幕式仅剩 30 天，尼尔森的 Gracenote 发布了最新的 2024 年奥运会虚拟奖牌榜（VMT）预测。考虑到自 2021 年夏季奥运会以来全球和各大洲主要比赛的现有成绩数据，Gracenote 预测了第三十三届奥林匹克运动会参赛国家和运动员的金、银、铜牌数量。这一预测将在奥运会开幕前再次更新，即巴黎奥运会开幕式前三天左右。
Almost all Russian and Belarussian competitors have been absent from international
competitions since February 2022. Any who take part in Paris 2024 without results in this period cannot be predicted accurately. However, it appears that there will be limited participation of these athletes and we expect the Virtual Medal Table to be the usual accurate reflection of the NOCs based on the data that we have.
快照
Gracenote’s VMT forecast projects the United States to win the most medals overall at Paris 2024 (123). If Team USA meets this expectation, it would mark the team’s eighth successive placement at the top of the final Summer Games medal table.
China is projected to finish second on total medals but should challenge the United States for first place on gold medals. The 87 medals currently forecast for China would be two fewer than the country’s total in Tokyo two years ago. The 36 gold medals forecast would be two down on China’s total of 38 three years ago.
Great Britain is also expected to produce a similar performance to the last Olympics with the Gracenote VMT forecasting two fewer British medals than Tokyo’s 64. Gold medals could be significantly down though as the British team is projected to win 14 golds in Paris.
Host nation France should sharply increase its overall medal haul in comparison to the 33 total medals won in Tokyo. The Virtual Medal Table puts France in third place on gold medals, behind the United States and China, and its forecast total of 29 gold medals would be not far short of France’s total number of medals at the last Olympics.
Australia is expected to be fifth on the total medal table. The 48 medals forecasted by the Gracenote Virtual Medal Table would be the country’s most for 20 years, since winning 50 at Athens 2004.
俄罗斯和白俄罗斯运动员
With competitors from Russia and Belarus being banned from international competition in almost all Olympic sports since February 2022, it is not possible to assess potential performance accurately for those participating as Individual Neutral Athletes at Paris 2024 unless they have been competing more or less normally like, for example, the tennis players from the two countries. However, it appears that the number of competitors from these countries will be severely limited in Paris and the Gracenote Virtual Medal Table is therefore representing the current situation accurately given the data which we have.
获得奖牌最多的五个国家
美国
(Paris 2024 projection: 123 medals, Tokyo 2020: 113)
美国有望再次在巴黎夏季奥运会虚拟奖牌榜上名列榜首。根据 Gracenote 目前的预测，美国将获得 123 枚奖牌，比美国队在 2021 年获得的奖牌总数多出 10 枚。如果达到这个总数，这将是美国队自 1984 年洛杉矶奥运会以来的最好成绩。在虚拟奖牌榜上，美国队预计将在 26 个不同项目上获得奖牌，比美国在东京奥运会上创造的 29 枚奖牌纪录少了 3 个项目。田径和游泳仍然是成功的关键，预计美国队将在这两个项目上获得近一半的奖牌。
中国
(Paris 2024: 87, Tokyo 2020: 89)
At the Tokyo Olympics, China recovered from its total of 70 medals at the Rio Olympics, its lowest since 2004. Current Gracenote projections from the results which Chinese athletes are recording suggests that China will produce a similar performance to three years ago. Diving, shooting, swimming, weightlifting, table tennis, artistic gymnastics and badminton are China’s key medal-winning sports but 21 sports have a top-three Chinese competitor according to the VMT. China’s projected gold medal total of 36 means that it should be a threat to the United States’ position as the winner of most golds in Paris.
大不列颠
(Paris 2024: 62, Tokyo 2020: 64)
2024 年巴黎奥运会的 Gracenote 虚拟奖牌榜显示，英国可以在连续第四届夏季奥运会上保持 60 枚或更多奖牌的佳绩。英国在过去三届奥运会上的成功是建立在至少在 20 个运动项目中获得奖牌的基础上的，而目前的虚拟奖牌榜预测显示，英国将在 21 个运动项目中获得奖牌。在 2012 年奥运会之前，英国只在 1908 年的伦敦奥运会上在至少 20 个项目上获得过奖牌，那是一个截然不同的奥运时代。
法国
(Paris 2024: 56, Tokyo 2020: 33)
根据目前的预测，东道主法国的奖牌总数将大幅增加，与东京奥运会相比，金牌数将增加近两倍。在本世纪的每届奥运会上，法国都能在 15 到 19 个不同的运动项目上取得夏季奥运会的成功，但现在预计将在 24 个不同的运动项目上获得奖牌，这是法国的新纪录。在 2024 年巴黎奥运会上，法国有望取得自 1900 年以来最好的奥运会成绩。
澳大利亚
(2024 年巴黎：48 枚奖牌，2020 年东京：46 枚）。
After the disappointing Olympics of 2012 and 2016, Australia will again improve on its 2021 performance with over 40 medals for the sixth time in the last eight Olympics. If Australia wins 48 medals as currently forecast, it will be the country’s best Olympic performance since Athens 2004. Achieving this will rely on the success of the swimming team.
虚拟奖章 表 1-10
| NOC | 国家 | 金色 | 银色 | 青铜 | 总计 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 美国 |  | 39 | 32 | 41 | 112 |
| 中国 |  | 34 | 27 | 25 | 86 |
| 大不列颠 |  | 17 | 20 | 26 | 63 |
| 法国 |  | 27 | 21 | 12 | 60 |
| 澳大利亚 |  | 15 | 23 | 16 | 54 |
| 日本 |  | 13 | 13 | 21 | 47 |
| 意大利 |  | 11 | 19 | 16 | 46 |
| 德国 |  | 11 | 12 | 12 | 35 |
| 荷兰 |  | 16 | 10 | 8 | 34 |
| 大韩民国 |  | 9 | 4 | 13 | 26 |
虚拟奖牌榜上排名 6 至 10 的国家
日本
(Paris 2024: 46, Tokyo 2020: 58)
After its record-breaking Olympics in Tokyo, Japan is expected to fall short of that performance in Paris. Gracenote’s latest Virtual Medal Table has the Japanese team winning 12 fewer medals than three years ago. The number of gold medals likely to be won by Japan is expected to be more than halved, from 27 to 12. Medals are forecast in 16 different sports, well short of Japan’s record of 21 from Tokyo 2020.
意大利
(2024 年巴黎：46，2020 年东京：40）。
意大利在东京奥运会上取得了历史上最好的成绩，但 Gracenote 虚拟奖牌榜预测，意大利在 2024 年巴黎奥运会上将取得更好的成绩。由于在泳池中的表现可能达到历史最佳水平，预计意大利将在 20 个不同项目中赢得创纪录的 46 枚奖牌，比东京奥运会多 6 个领奖台。
德国
(Paris 2024: 37, Tokyo 2020: 37)
在德国统一后的七届夏季奥运会中，德国的奖牌总数有六届有所下降，只有 2012 年伦敦奥运会让德国得以喘息。2024 年巴黎奥运会可能会阻止这一趋势，Gracenote 的虚拟奖牌榜预计德国将获得 37 枚奖牌，与东京奥运会相同。据预测，德国队将在 20 个项目上获得奖牌，是德国统一以来获得奖牌第三少的国家，仅次于 2012 年伦敦奥运会和 2020 年东京奥运会。德国队在任何一个项目上都不再占据优势，虚拟奖牌榜预测德国队在任何一个项目上的奖牌数都不会超过三枚。
荷兰
(Paris 2024: 34, Tokyo 2020: 36)
Two years after its best Summer Olympics in Tokyo, the Dutch team is forecast to produce a similar performance in Paris next year and perhaps set more records. Our latest forecast has the Dutch breaking the country’s gold medal record of 12, set at the Sydney 2000 Olympics. At four of the last six Olympic Games, the Netherlands has won medals in 11 to 13 sports and the 2024 Summer Games look like being a similar story. However, success this year will primarily depend on three sports; rowing, cycling – track and athletics.
大韩民国
(Paris 2024: 29, Tokyo 2020: 20)
Tokyo 2020 was a disappointing Olympics for the Republic of Korea. The 20 medals including six golds were both the lowest totals for the country since it won 19 and six respectively at the Los Angeles Olympics of 1984. The prospects for Paris 2024 look better with Korean competitors forecast to win 29 medals, including eight golds. This would be Korea’s best Olympic performance since 2012.
虚拟奖章 表 11-20
| NOC | 国家 | 金色 | 银色 | 青铜 | 总计 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 加拿大 |  | 7 | 9 | 5 | 21 |
| 匈牙利 |  | 7 | 6 | 7 | 20 |
| 巴西 |  | 8 | 4 | 6 | 18 |
| 西班牙 |  | 5 | 5 | 8 | 18 |
| 波兰 |  | 3 | 7 | 7 | 17 |
| 丹麦 |  | 5 | 5 | 4 | 14 |
| 土耳其 |  | 4 | 5 | 5 | 14 |
| 新西兰 |  | 4 | 4 | 6 | 14 |
| 乌克兰 |  | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 |
| 埃塞俄比亚 |  | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
虚拟奖牌表 21-30
| NOC | 国家 | 金色 | 银色 | 青铜 | 总计 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 肯尼亚 |  | 5 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| 瑞典 |  | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 比利时 |  | 4 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 格鲁吉亚 |  | 3 | 4 | 5 | 12 |
| 乌兹别克斯坦 |  | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 |
| 瑞士 |  | 0 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| 伊朗 |  | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 爱尔兰 |  | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 哈萨克斯坦 |  | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 牙买加 |  | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10 |
关于 Gracenote 虚拟奖牌榜
Gracenote 虚拟奖牌榜是一个基于历届奥运会、世锦赛和世界杯的个人和团体成绩的统计模型，用于预测各国最有可能的金牌、银牌和铜牌获得者。这些信息以简单易懂的预测和无缝数据馈送的方式呈现，使广播公司、媒体出版商和付费电视运营商能够通过网络、移动和广播属性提供独特的奥运焦点故事。
关于 Gracenote
Gracenote 是尼尔森的内容解决方案业务部门，为全球领先的创作者、发行商和平台提供娱乐元数据、内容 ID 和相关产品。Gracenote 技术实现了先进的内容导航和发现功能，确保消费者可以轻松连接到他们喜爱的音乐、电视节目、电影和体育节目，同时提供强大的内容分析功能，使复杂的商业决策变得更加简单。
关于尼尔森
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