就在 2024 年巴黎奥运会开幕式前几天，尼尔森的 Gracenote 发布了 2024 年奥运会的最终虚拟奖牌榜（VMT）预测。考虑到自 2020 年东京夏季奥运会以来全球和各大洲主要比赛的现有成绩数据，Gracenote 预测了第三十三届奥林匹克运动会参赛国家和运动员的金、银、铜牌数量。
Almost all Russian and Belarussian competitors have been absent from international competitions since February 2022. Any who take part in Paris 2024 without results in this period cannot be predicted accurately. However, there is limited participation of these athletes and we expect the Virtual Medal Table to be the usual accurate reflection of the National Olympic Committees’ potential Olympic performance based on the data that we have.
快照
Gracenote’s VMT forecast projects the United States to win the most medals overall at Paris 2024 (112). If Team USA meets this expectation, it would mark the team’s eighth successive placement at the top of the final Summer Games medal table.
China is projected to finish second on total medals but could challenge the United States for first place on gold medals. The 86 medals currently forecast for China would be three fewer than the country’s total of 89 in Tokyo three years ago. The 34 gold medals forecast would be four down on China’s total of 38 three years ago.
Great Britain is also expected to produce a similar performance to the last Olympics with the Gracenote VMT forecasting one British medal fewer than Tokyo’s 64. Gold medals could be significantly down though as the British team is projected to win 17 golds in Paris.
与东京奥运会的 33 枚奖牌相比，东道主法国的奖牌总数将大幅增加。虚拟奖牌榜将法国的金牌数排在第三位，仅次于美国和中国，如果法国最终预测的金牌总数达到 27 枚，将与法国在上届奥运会上的奖牌总数相差无几。
Australia is expected to be fifth on the total medal table. The 54 medals forecasted by the Gracenote Virtual Medal Table would be the country’s most for 24 years, since winning a record 58 when hosting Sydney 2000.
俄罗斯和白俄罗斯运动员
由于俄罗斯和白俄罗斯的选手自 2022 年 2 月起被禁止参加几乎所有奥运项目的国际比赛，因此无法准确评估作为中立运动员个人参加 2024 年巴黎奥运会的选手的潜在成绩，除非他们或多或少地参加了正常比赛，例如来自这两个国家的网球选手。不过，这些国家参加巴黎奥运会的选手人数似乎非常有限，因此，从我们掌握的数据来看，Gracenote 虚拟奖牌榜准确地反映了当前的情况。
获得奖牌最多的五个国家
美国
(Paris 2024 projection: 112 medals, Tokyo 2020: 113)
The U.S. is expected to once again top the Summer Games Virtual Medal Table in Paris. The current Gracenote projection of 112 medals is similar to the total claimed by Team USA in 2021. The United States team has medals projected in 28 different sports in the Virtual Medal Table, one sport fewer than the country’s own Olympic record of 29 which was set in Tokyo. Athletics and swimming are still the key to success though with just under half of US medals projected to be won in those two sports.
中国
(Paris 2024: 86, Tokyo 2020: 89)
At the Tokyo Olympics, China recovered from its total of 70 medals at the Rio Olympics, its lowest since 2004. Final Gracenote projections for Paris 2024 suggest that China will produce a similar performance to three years ago. Diving, shooting, swimming, table tennis, artistic gymnastics and badminton are China’s key medal-winning sports but 20 different sports have a top-three Chinese competitor according to the VMT. China’s projected gold medal total of 34 means that it may be a threat to the United States’ position as the winner of most golds in Paris.
大不列颠
(Paris 2024: 63, Tokyo 2020: 64)
The final Gracenote Virtual Medal Table for Paris 2024 suggests that Great Britain can sustain its winning performance of 60 or more medals for a fourth successive Olympic Summer Games. British success over the past three Summer Olympics has been built on having medal winners in at least 20 sports. Gracenote’s final VMT forecast has British medal winners in 21 different sports, suggesting that this trend is set to continue. Prior to the 2012 Olympic Games, Great Britain had not won medals in at least 20 sports for over 100 years, since hosting in 1908.
法国
(Paris 2024: 60, Tokyo 2020: 33)
Gracenote’s final forecast projects that host nation France will increase its medal total significantly, nearly tripling its number of gold medals in comparison to the Tokyo Olympics. Summer Olympic success for France has been achieved in 15 to 19 different sports at each Olympics this century but medals are projected in 28 different sports in Paris. This would be a new French record. At the Paris 2024 Games, France is expected to have its best Olympic Games for 124 years, since winning 115 medals when hosting in 1900.
澳大利亚
(2024 年巴黎：54 枚奖牌，2020 年东京：46 枚）。
After the disappointing Olympics of 2012 and 2016, Australia will again improve in Paris. Gracenote expects Australia to win over 40 medals for the sixth time in the last eight Olympics and more than 50 for the first time for 24 years. If Australia wins 54 medals as forecast, it will be the country’s best Olympic performance since hosting Sydney 2000. Achieving this will depend to a great extent on the success of the swimming team.
虚拟奖章 表 1-10
| NOC | 国家 | 金色 | 银色 | 青铜 | 总计 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 美国 |  | 39 | 32 | 41 | 112 |
| 中国 |  | 34 | 27 | 25 | 86 |
| 大不列颠 |  | 17 | 20 | 26 | 63 |
| 法国 |  | 27 | 21 | 12 | 60 |
| 澳大利亚 |  | 15 | 23 | 16 | 54 |
| 日本 |  | 13 | 13 | 21 | 47 |
| 意大利 |  | 11 | 19 | 16 | 46 |
| 德国 |  | 11 | 12 | 12 | 35 |
| 荷兰 |  | 16 | 10 | 8 | 34 |
| 大韩民国 |  | 9 | 4 | 13 | 26 |
虚拟奖牌榜上排名 6 至 10 的国家
日本
(Paris 2024: 47, Tokyo 2020: 58)
After its record-breaking Olympics in Tokyo, Japan is expected to fall short of that performance in Paris. Gracenote’s final Virtual Medal Table has the Japanese team winning 11 fewer medals than three years ago. The number of gold medals likely to be won by Japan is expected to be more than halved, from 27 to 13. Medals are forecast in 17 different sports, well short of Japan’s record of 21 from Tokyo 2020. However, 47 medals would represent Japan’s second best Summer Games performance, after Tokyo 2020.
意大利
(2024 年巴黎：46，2020 年东京：40）。
意大利在东京奥运会上取得了历史最好成绩，但根据 Gracenote 的最终虚拟奖牌榜预测，意大利在 2024 年巴黎奥运会上将取得更好的成绩。由于在泳池中的表现可能达到历史最佳水平，预计意大利将在 21 个不同项目中获得 46 枚奖牌，创下历史最佳纪录，超过东京奥运会在 19 个项目中获得 40 枚奖牌的纪录。
德国
(Paris 2024: 35, Tokyo 2020: 37)
自德国统一以来，在七届夏季奥运会中，德国的奖牌总数有六届有所下降，只有 2012 年伦敦奥运会给了德国喘息的机会。2024 年巴黎奥运会可能会延续这一趋势，Gracenote 的最终虚拟奖牌榜预计德国将获得 35 枚奖牌，比东京奥运会少两枚。据预测，德国队将在 18 个不同的运动项目中获得奖牌，这是自德国统一以来仅次于 2012 年伦敦奥运会的第二少的奖牌数。德国队在任何一个项目上都不再占据优势，虚拟奖牌榜预测德国队在任何一个项目上都不会超过三枚奖牌。
荷兰
(Paris 2024: 34, Tokyo 2020: 36)
Three years after its best Summer Olympics in Tokyo, the Dutch team is forecast to produce a similar performance in Paris. Gracenote’s final forecast has the Dutch team breaking the country’s gold medal record of 12, set at the Sydney 2000 Olympics but just falling short of the total medal record of 36 from the same Games. At four of the last six Olympic Games, the Netherlands has won medals in 11 to 13 sports. The 2024 Summer Games look like being a similar story with Gracenote forecasting medals in 12 different sports. However, success this year will primarily depend on three sports – rowing, cycling – track and athletics – which, between them, are expected to deliver half of the medals for the Netherlands.
大韩民国
(Paris 2024: 26, Tokyo 2020: 20)
Tokyo 2020 was a disappointing Olympics for the Republic of Korea. The 20 medals including six golds were both the lowest totals for the country since it won 19 and six respectively at the Los Angeles Olympics of 1984. The prospects for Paris 2024 look better with Korean competitors forecast to win 26 medals, including nine golds, across 11 different sports. This would be Korea’s best Olympic medal winning performance since 2012 and it would put Korea back into the top-10 medal winning nations.
虚拟奖章 表 11-20
| NOC | 国家 | 金色 | 银色 | 青铜 | 总计 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 加拿大 |  | 7 | 9 | 5 | 21 |
| 匈牙利 |  | 7 | 6 | 7 | 20 |
| 巴西 |  | 8 | 4 | 6 | 18 |
| 西班牙 |  | 5 | 5 | 8 | 18 |
| 波兰 |  | 3 | 7 | 7 | 17 |
| 丹麦 |  | 5 | 5 | 4 | 14 |
| 土耳其 |  | 4 | 5 | 5 | 14 |
| 新西兰 |  | 4 | 4 | 6 | 14 |
| 乌克兰 |  | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 |
| 埃塞俄比亚 |  | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
虚拟奖牌表 21-30
| NOC | 国家 | 金色 | 银色 | 青铜 | 总计 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 肯尼亚 |  | 5 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| 瑞典 |  | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 比利时 |  | 4 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 格鲁吉亚 |  | 3 | 4 | 5 | 12 |
| 乌兹别克斯坦 |  | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 |
| 瑞士 |  | 0 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| 伊朗 |  | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 爱尔兰 |  | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 哈萨克斯坦 |  | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 牙买加 |  | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10 |
关于 Gracenote 虚拟奖牌榜
The Gracenote Virtual Medal Table is a statistical model based on individual and team results in previous Olympics Games, World Championships and World Cups to forecast the most likely gold, silver and bronze medal winners by country. This information is presented in simple to understand projections and seamless data feeds that enable broadcasters, media publishers and pay TV operators to deliver unique Olympic-focused stories across Web, mobile and broadcast properties. https://beta.nielsen.com/news-center/2024/virtual-medal-table-forecast/
关于 Gracenote
Gracenote 是尼尔森的内容解决方案业务部门，为全球领先的创作者、发行商和平台提供娱乐元数据、内容 ID 和相关产品。Gracenote 技术实现了先进的内容导航和发现功能，确保消费者可以轻松连接到他们喜爱的音乐、电视节目、电影和体育节目，同时提供强大的内容分析功能，使复杂的商业决策变得更加简单。
关于尼尔森
Nielsen shapes the world’s media and content as a global leader in audience measurement, data and analytics. Through our understanding of people and their behaviors across all channels and platforms, we empower our clients with independent and actionable intelligence so they can connect and engage with their audiences—now and into the future. Nielsen operates around the world in more than 55 countries. Learn more at www.nielsen.com and connect with us on social media (Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook and Instagram).
