除了吸引全国数百万球迷，体育也是一门大生意，尤其是在电视转播权方面。当我们审视商业机会时，没有什么能与橄榄球相提并论--媒体行业在美国大学生体育协会（NCAA）顶级联盟最近的成员变动中亲身经历了这一点。
这些变化不太可能影响到个别球队的球迷，但这是近代历史上最广泛的变化，将影响到球队在电视上的露面方式以及谁能看到他们的比赛。
与媒体行业的许多方面一样，观众是联盟调整的关键因素，其中大部分调整要到 2024 赛季才会生效。届时，将有八支球队离开太平洋十二大联盟，加入拥有更丰厚电视转播合约的联盟：四支球队将加入十大联盟，四支球队将加入十二大联盟。
Unlike the other Power Five1 conference members, the Pac-12 does not have a long-term TV rights deal, which has a direct impact on the revenue each member school receives. For example, the Big Ten expects its seven-year deal with CBS, FOX and NBC to be lucrative enough to distribute between $80 million and $100 million annually to each member school. The $8 billion deal is the biggest in the history of college athletics, and it gives the contract holders access to some of NCAA football’s highest-ranked and most-watched teams, including Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State.
联盟成员资格会影响每个成员学校的所有体育项目，但近年来的转变都是出于与现场橄榄球比赛相关的权益考虑。根据对各联盟在 2022 赛季电视曝光率相关价值的分析，明年生效的联盟调整将对 SEC、Big Ten 和 Pac-12 产生重大影响。
The value of TV exposure is clear. One-third of Americans say they’re college football fans2, making the league the fourth-most popular in the U.S. (behind the NFL, NBA and MLB). And big teams draw big viewership: More than 17 million viewers3 watched last year’s marquee late-season matchup between Ohio State and Michigan, the highest viewership of the regular season. For comparison, nearly 2.3 million viewers3 watched the Brooklyn Nets play the Philadelphia 76ers in the first round of last year’s NBA playoffs.
While top-ranking teams and storied rivalries will always command national TV coverage, the implications of the conference membership changes will have different outcomes at the local market level. Last year’s week 8 game between UCLA and Oregon (which will both leave the Pac-12 next year) attracted a national audience of 3.34 million3. Once these two teams join the Big Ten, they will expand the conference’s TV audience across the entire country and both coasts.
To better understand how the conference changes will shape local TV viewership beyond individual games, we examined the difference between Pac-12 and Big Ten TV viewing in Los Angeles, Portland and Seattle during the 2022 season. These designated market areas (DMAs) are home to four West Coast teams4 that will switch conferences next year.
Due to the size of these three markets, last season’s Pac-12 programming reached 123% more households and 151% more individual viewers than Big Ten programming did5. And while the 0.1 difference in co-viewing might seem insignificant at face value, it becomes far more meaningful when you multiply it by the total viewing population of the three DMAs.
当我们细分大会的总收视率时，我们可以看到大会的变化对各个市场的影响。尽管洛杉矶人口众多，UCLA 和南加州大学都坐落于此，但下赛季波特兰的收视率提升幅度最大。
While the Big Ten will benefit next year from the arrival of USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington, the Big 12 will benefit from the arrival of the University of Colorado, home to this year’s hottest college football story. The Colorado Buffaloes have been in the news ever since NFL legend Deion Sanders took over as head coach last year, but the team’s 3-1 start, including an upset over TCU (Texas Christian University) to open the season, has made their games must-see TV for football fans. In fact, the team’s double-overtime victory over Colorado State on Sept. 16 attracted 9.3 million viewers3 despite the fact that it didn’t start until after 10 pm ET. The team’s Sept. 23 game against Oregon attracted more than 10 million live and same-day viewers, the largest audience of the season.
虽然我们的全国电视曝光价值分析表明，科罗拉多州明年加入 Big 12 后（还有亚利桑那州、亚利桑那州立大学和犹他州），Big 12 的电视曝光价值不会发生重大变化（+1%），但对当地电视收视率的影响却是另一回事。Coach Prime 的影响立竿见影，水牛队首场比赛的丹佛电视观众比去年增加了 117%。而这仅仅是一个起点。
总体而言，关注度的提高对今年的太平洋十二大联盟和明年的大十二联盟来说是个好兆头，因为家庭平均收视率增长了 976%，2 岁及以上观众的收视率增长超过了 1,100%。对水牛队的炒作也使今年的共同收视率提高了 15%。
NCAA 大学橄榄球赛对体育迷的吸引力是毋庸置疑的，尤其是当重大对决来临时。虽然主要对决总是会在全国电视上曝光，但我们也可以看到当地市场的电视收视率是如何通过 NCAA 五大联盟之间最近的变化来提升相关球队的价值的。
资料来源
1The five most prominent and highest-earning athletic conferences in Division I NCAA football: ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC
2Nielsen Fan Insights; Q2 2023
3Nielsen National TV Panel; live + same day viewing (3 a.m.-3 a.m.)
4UCLA, USC, Oregon, Washington
5Nielsen Local TV measurement
