Just days ahead of the Paris 2024 Olympics opening ceremony on Friday, Nielsen’s Gracenote releases its final Virtual Medal Table (VMT) forecast for the 2024 Games. Considering available results data from key global and continental competitions since the Tokyo 2020 Summer Games, Gracenote has projected gold, silver and bronze medal counts for participating countries and athletes at the Games of the XXXIII Olympiad.
Almost all Russian and Belarussian competitors have been absent from international competitions since February 2022. Any who take part in Paris 2024 without results in this period cannot be predicted accurately. However, there is limited participation of these athletes and we expect the Virtual Medal Table to be the usual accurate reflection of the National Olympic Committees’ potential Olympic performance based on the data that we have.
スナップショット
Gracenote’s VMT forecast projects the United States to win the most medals overall at Paris 2024 (112). If Team USA meets this expectation, it would mark the team’s eighth successive placement at the top of the final Summer Games medal table.
China is projected to finish second on total medals but could challenge the United States for first place on gold medals. The 86 medals currently forecast for China would be three fewer than the country’s total of 89 in Tokyo three years ago. The 34 gold medals forecast would be four down on China’s total of 38 three years ago.
Great Britain is also expected to produce a similar performance to the last Olympics with the Gracenote VMT forecasting one British medal fewer than Tokyo’s 64. Gold medals could be significantly down though as the British team is projected to win 17 golds in Paris.
Host nation France should sharply increase its overall medal haul in comparison to the 33 total medals won in Tokyo. The Virtual Medal Table puts France in third place on gold medals, behind the United States and China, and its final forecast total of 27 gold medals would be not far short of France’s total number of medals at the last Olympics, if it is achieved.
Australia is expected to be fifth on the total medal table. The 54 medals forecasted by the Gracenote Virtual Medal Table would be the country’s most for 24 years, since winning a record 58 when hosting Sydney 2000.
ロシアとベラルーシの選手
ロシアとベラルーシの競技者は、2022年2月以降、ほとんどすべてのオリンピック競技において国際大会への出場が禁止されているため、例えば、両国のテニス選手のように、多かれ少なかれ通常の競技を行っていない限り、2024年パリ大会に個人中立選手として参加する競技者の潜在的なパフォーマンスを正確に評価することはできない。しかし、これらの国からパリに出場する選手の数は非常に限られており、Gracenoteのバーチャルメダル表は、我々が持っているデータから現状を正確に表していると思われる。
メダル獲得国トップ5
米国
(Paris 2024 projection: 112 medals, Tokyo 2020: 113)
The U.S. is expected to once again top the Summer Games Virtual Medal Table in Paris. The current Gracenote projection of 112 medals is similar to the total claimed by Team USA in 2021. The United States team has medals projected in 28 different sports in the Virtual Medal Table, one sport fewer than the country’s own Olympic record of 29 which was set in Tokyo. Athletics and swimming are still the key to success though with just under half of US medals projected to be won in those two sports.
中国
(Paris 2024: 86, Tokyo 2020: 89)
At the Tokyo Olympics, China recovered from its total of 70 medals at the Rio Olympics, its lowest since 2004. Final Gracenote projections for Paris 2024 suggest that China will produce a similar performance to three years ago. Diving, shooting, swimming, table tennis, artistic gymnastics and badminton are China’s key medal-winning sports but 20 different sports have a top-three Chinese competitor according to the VMT. China’s projected gold medal total of 34 means that it may be a threat to the United States’ position as the winner of most golds in Paris.
イギリス
(Paris 2024: 63, Tokyo 2020: 64)
The final Gracenote Virtual Medal Table for Paris 2024 suggests that Great Britain can sustain its winning performance of 60 or more medals for a fourth successive Olympic Summer Games. British success over the past three Summer Olympics has been built on having medal winners in at least 20 sports. Gracenote’s final VMT forecast has British medal winners in 21 different sports, suggesting that this trend is set to continue. Prior to the 2012 Olympic Games, Great Britain had not won medals in at least 20 sports for over 100 years, since hosting in 1908.
フランス
(Paris 2024: 60, Tokyo 2020: 33)
Gracenote’s final forecast projects that host nation France will increase its medal total significantly, nearly tripling its number of gold medals in comparison to the Tokyo Olympics. Summer Olympic success for France has been achieved in 15 to 19 different sports at each Olympics this century but medals are projected in 28 different sports in Paris. This would be a new French record. At the Paris 2024 Games, France is expected to have its best Olympic Games for 124 years, since winning 115 medals when hosting in 1900.
オーストラリア
(2024年パリ：メダル54個、2020年東京：メダル46個）
After the disappointing Olympics of 2012 and 2016, Australia will again improve in Paris. Gracenote expects Australia to win over 40 medals for the sixth time in the last eight Olympics and more than 50 for the first time for 24 years. If Australia wins 54 medals as forecast, it will be the country’s best Olympic performance since hosting Sydney 2000. Achieving this will depend to a great extent on the success of the swimming team.
仮想メダル表1-10
| エヌオーシー | 国名 | ゴールド | シルバー | ブロンズ | 合計 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 米国 |  | 39 | 32 | 41 | 112 |
| 中国 |  | 34 | 27 | 25 | 86 |
| イギリス |  | 17 | 20 | 26 | 63 |
| フランス |  | 27 | 21 | 12 | 60 |
| オーストラリア |  | 15 | 23 | 16 | 54 |
| 日本 |  | 13 | 13 | 21 | 47 |
| イタリア |  | 11 | 19 | 16 | 46 |
| ドイツ |  | 11 | 12 | 12 | 35 |
| オランダ |  | 16 | 10 | 8 | 34 |
| 大韓民国 |  | 9 | 4 | 13 | 26 |
ヴァーチャル・メダル・テーブルの6位から10位までの国
日本
(Paris 2024: 47, Tokyo 2020: 58)
After its record-breaking Olympics in Tokyo, Japan is expected to fall short of that performance in Paris. Gracenote’s final Virtual Medal Table has the Japanese team winning 11 fewer medals than three years ago. The number of gold medals likely to be won by Japan is expected to be more than halved, from 27 to 13. Medals are forecast in 17 different sports, well short of Japan’s record of 21 from Tokyo 2020. However, 47 medals would represent Japan’s second best Summer Games performance, after Tokyo 2020.
イタリア
(パリ2024年予想：46、東京2020年：40）。
イタリアは東京オリンピックで過去最高の成績を収めたが、Gracenoteの最終的なバーチャルメダル表では、パリ2024での成績はさらに良くなると予想されている。プールでの過去最高のパフォーマンスに後押しされ、イタリアは史上最高の21種目で46個のメダルを獲得し、東京大会の19種目で40個のメダルという記録を上回ると予想されています。
ドイツ
(Paris 2024: 35, Tokyo 2020: 37)
ドイツのメダル総数は、統一後7回の夏季オリンピックのうち6回で減少しており、2012年ロンドン大会だけが唯一の救いとなっている。2024年パリ大会もこの傾向が続く可能性があり、Gracenoteの最終バーチャルメダル表では、ドイツのメダル獲得数は東京大会より2つ少ない35個と予想されている。ドイツチームは18種目でメダルを獲得すると予想されているが、これは2012年ロンドンに次いで、統一以降で2番目に低い数字である。ドイツはもはや特定の競技を支配しておらず、VMTが予想するドイツチームのメダル獲得数は、どの競技でも3個を超えない。
オランダ
(Paris 2024: 34, Tokyo 2020: 36)
Three years after its best Summer Olympics in Tokyo, the Dutch team is forecast to produce a similar performance in Paris. Gracenote’s final forecast has the Dutch team breaking the country’s gold medal record of 12, set at the Sydney 2000 Olympics but just falling short of the total medal record of 36 from the same Games. At four of the last six Olympic Games, the Netherlands has won medals in 11 to 13 sports. The 2024 Summer Games look like being a similar story with Gracenote forecasting medals in 12 different sports. However, success this year will primarily depend on three sports – rowing, cycling – track and athletics – which, between them, are expected to deliver half of the medals for the Netherlands.
大韓民国
(Paris 2024: 26, Tokyo 2020: 20)
Tokyo 2020 was a disappointing Olympics for the Republic of Korea. The 20 medals including six golds were both the lowest totals for the country since it won 19 and six respectively at the Los Angeles Olympics of 1984. The prospects for Paris 2024 look better with Korean competitors forecast to win 26 medals, including nine golds, across 11 different sports. This would be Korea’s best Olympic medal winning performance since 2012 and it would put Korea back into the top-10 medal winning nations.
仮想メダル 表11-20
| エヌオーシー | 国名 | ゴールド | シルバー | ブロンズ | 合計 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| カナダ |  | 7 | 9 | 5 | 21 |
| ハンガリー |  | 7 | 6 | 7 | 20 |
| ブラジル |  | 8 | 4 | 6 | 18 |
| スペイン |  | 5 | 5 | 8 | 18 |
| ポーランド |  | 3 | 7 | 7 | 17 |
| デンマーク |  | 5 | 5 | 4 | 14 |
| トルコ |  | 4 | 5 | 5 | 14 |
| ニュージーランド |  | 4 | 4 | 6 | 14 |
| ウクライナ |  | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 |
| エチオピア |  | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
仮想メダル表21-30
| エヌオーシー | 国名 | ゴールド | シルバー | ブロンズ | 合計 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ケニア |  | 5 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| スウェーデン |  | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| ベルギー |  | 4 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| グルジア |  | 3 | 4 | 5 | 12 |
| ウズベキスタン |  | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 |
| スイス |  | 0 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| イラン |  | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| アイルランド |  | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| カザフスタン |  | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| ジャマイカ |  | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10 |
ニールセンについて グレースノート・バーチャルメダル表
The Gracenote Virtual Medal Table is a statistical model based on individual and team results in previous Olympics Games, World Championships and World Cups to forecast the most likely gold, silver and bronze medal winners by country. This information is presented in simple to understand projections and seamless data feeds that enable broadcasters, media publishers and pay TV operators to deliver unique Olympic-focused stories across Web, mobile and broadcast properties. https://beta.nielsen.com/news-center/2024/virtual-medal-table-forecast/
ニールセンについて グレースノート
Gracenoteは、ニールセンのコンテンツ・ソリューション事業部門であり、エンターテインメントのメタデータ、コンテンツID、および関連製品を世界の主要なクリエイター、配信事業者、およびプラットフォームに提供しています。Gracenoteのテクノロジーは、高度なコンテンツナビゲーションとディスカバリー機能を実現し、消費者が好きな音楽、テレビ番組、映画、スポーツに簡単にアクセスできるようにするとともに、複雑なビジネス上の意思決定をよりシンプルにする強力なコンテンツ分析を提供します。
ニールセンについて
Nielsen shapes the world’s media and content as a global leader in audience measurement, data and analytics. Through our understanding of people and their behaviors across all channels and platforms, we empower our clients with independent and actionable intelligence so they can connect and engage with their audiences—now and into the future. Nielsen operates around the world in more than 55 countries. Learn more at www.nielsen.com and connect with us on social media (Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook and Instagram).
