除了对品牌的考验远远超出预期之外，过去的一年半还展示了有时与极端供求波动相关的戏剧性起伏。对于汽车行业来说，今年销量的反弹是个好消息，但去年消费者对移动性的需求使得汽车制造商不得不四处寻找日益稀缺的半导体，以保证生产线的正常运转。因此，鉴于供应量不断减少，汽车制造商及其代理商需要将主要精力放在品牌宣传上，以保持消费者的关注度，直到他们能够更好地利用短期转换工作。
After consumers were sheltered and close to home for much of last year, demand for personal vehicles quickly returned in the back half of 2020 and into this year, with the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reporting auto sales of 365,000 and 356,000 units in March and April, respectively, up from 264,000 and 166,000 in the prior-year periods. But the chip shortage began to affect manufacturing mid-year, which means the uptick in new auto sales retreated and will stay depressed until chip supplies normalize and dealer inventory levels can be restored. Research firm IHS Markit expects auto production to begin to recover later this year, but it estimates the shortage will result in $182 billion in lost output for the auto industry.
汽车行业在今年下半年，甚至更长时间内都将面临供应不足的问题，这可能会让品牌商认为，鉴于近期销量将反映出库存的减少，他们可以削减营销支出。我们知道，市场的不确定性往往会导致营销削减，但我们也知道，从长远来看，采取这些行动的品牌会付出代价。
On average, it takes three to five years to recover equity lost because of halted advertising, and long-term revenue can take a 2% hit for every quarter a brand stops advertising. Brand building and awareness campaigns are critical in long-term success. And while many marketers might exclude brand building efforts from any discussions about their impact on sales, Nielsen data reveals how long-term marketing contributes to sales growth. Importantly, Nielsen’s experience base shows that on average, a 1-point gain in brand metrics, such as awareness and consideration, drive sales growth of 0.5% among non-consumer packaged goods.
鉴于大多数汽车购买之间的间隔时间较长，精明的汽车营销人员已经非常熟悉如何开展长期的品牌建设工作。因此，从这个角度来看，营销人员在当前供应短缺的情况下所采取的策略可能会影响到信息和渠道，而不是战略。
关注上层渠道指标需要信息与渠道之间的密切配合，在品牌建设工作中尤其如此。为了说明这一点，让我们来看看信息营销策略对某大型汽车品牌的影响。在衡量短期和长期影响时，我们发现
- 与上层渠道信息相比，下层渠道信息具有更高的短期影响力，但从长远来看，它并不能带来更多的附加价值。
- 上层渠道信息传递的短期效果略低，但从长远来看，它能带来有意义的额外价值。
如果我们从特定渠道的角度来看这个例子，结果会更有启发性。在发送上层渠道信息时，视频和线下媒体在推动短期和长期销售方面都非常有效。而对于下漏斗信息，非视频和在线媒体在推动短期销售方面的效率要高于推动长期销售。有鉴于此，汽车营销人员应考虑在短期内将更多预算投入到视频品牌营销活动中。
Given the massive disruption at the end of first-quarter 2020, the significant dip in ad spend across the U.S. auto industry was largely expected. After bottoming just one month after COVID-19 forced the country into lockdown, however, ad spend began to rebound, albeit in small increments. By September, marketers were spending at levels on par with January 2020 levels, and spending grew to surpass $1 billion by the end of the year, according to data from 尼尔森Ad Intel.
The increase in ad spend late in 2020 corresponds with seasonal car-buying trends as well as improving consumer sentiment about the pandemic. That said, we know that vehicle inventory is running low, which will likely inhibit traditional car buying trends this fall. That’s where brand awareness campaigns will need to carry manufacturers and dealers until they can meet consumer demand. Aggregate ad spend, however, has not reflected any amplified effort to stay top-of-mind with consumers, as total auto industry ad spend in May 2021 was a little more than half of what brands spent in May 2019.
虽然汽车品牌通常不会在 5 月份大量投放广告，但考虑到汽车品牌通常不会在秋季供货，因此有可能会失去消费者的关注。这意味着，在供应正常化之前，他们应始终与消费者保持联系。从更细的层面来看，各品牌的广告支出仍落后于 2019 年的水平，但部分公司的支出较去年有了较大幅度的提高。例如，2021 年 3 月，日产汽车公司的广告支出约为 2019 年 3 月的 90%。而在今年 5 月，拥有克莱斯勒、吉普、道奇、RAM、阿尔法-罗密欧和菲亚特等一系列汽车品牌的 Stellantis 公司的支出超过了 2019 年 5 月。
永远没有停止广告宣传的好时机，但当前的市场条件大大提高了风险。考虑到供应问题，现在更应该记住，长期的品牌建设战略确实会对销售产生影响。而如今，当未来的汽车销售岌岌可危时，保持消费者对品牌的关注可能会起到决定性的作用。尼尔森的数据显示，营销占品牌资产的 10%-35%。这对今天的汽车营销人员来说是一个很好的启示--当供应链正常化时也是如此。
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