A poucos dias da cerimônia de abertura dos Jogos Olímpicos de Paris 2024, na sexta-feira, a Gracenote, da Nielsen, divulga sua previsão final do Quadro Virtual de Medalhas (VMT) para os Jogos de 2024. Considerando os dados de resultados disponíveis das principais competições globais e continentais desde os Jogos Olímpicos de Verão de Tóquio 2020, a Gracenote projetou o número de medalhas de ouro, prata e bronze para os países participantes e atletas nos Jogos da XXXIII Olimpíada.
Almost all Russian and Belarussian competitors have been absent from international competitions since February 2022. Any who take part in Paris 2024 without results in this period cannot be predicted accurately. However, there is limited participation of these athletes and we expect the Virtual Medal Table to be the usual accurate reflection of the National Olympic Committees’ potential Olympic performance based on the data that we have.
Instantâneo
Gracenote’s VMT forecast projects the United States to win the most medals overall at Paris 2024 (112). If Team USA meets this expectation, it would mark the team’s eighth successive placement at the top of the final Summer Games medal table.
China is projected to finish second on total medals but could challenge the United States for first place on gold medals. The 86 medals currently forecast for China would be three fewer than the country’s total of 89 in Tokyo three years ago. The 34 gold medals forecast would be four down on China’s total of 38 three years ago.
Great Britain is also expected to produce a similar performance to the last Olympics with the Gracenote VMT forecasting one British medal fewer than Tokyo’s 64. Gold medals could be significantly down though as the British team is projected to win 17 golds in Paris.
A França, país anfitrião, deve aumentar significativamente o seu total de medalhas em comparação com as 33 medalhas conquistadas em Tóquio. A Tabela Virtual de Medalhas coloca a França em terceiro lugar no número de medalhas de ouro, atrás dos Estados Unidos e da China, e a sua previsão final de 27 medalhas de ouro não ficaria muito aquém do número total de medalhas conquistadas pela França nos últimos Jogos Olímpicos, caso seja alcançada.
Australia is expected to be fifth on the total medal table. The 54 medals forecasted by the Gracenote Virtual Medal Table would be the country’s most for 24 years, since winning a record 58 when hosting Sydney 2000.
Atletas russos e bielorrussos
Como os competidores da Rússia e da Bielorrússia foram banidos das competições internacionais em quase todos os esportes olímpicos desde fevereiro de 2022, não é possível avaliar com precisão o desempenho potencial dos participantes como Atletas Individuais Neutros em Paris 2024, a menos que eles tenham competido mais ou menos normalmente, como, por exemplo, os jogadores de tênis dos dois países. No entanto, parece que o número de competidores desses países é severamente limitado em Paris e o Quadro de Medalhas Virtual da Gracenote está, portanto, representando a situação atual com precisão, considerando os dados que temos.
Os cinco principais países ganhadores de medalhas
Estados Unidos
(Paris 2024 projection: 112 medals, Tokyo 2020: 113)
The U.S. is expected to once again top the Summer Games Virtual Medal Table in Paris. The current Gracenote projection of 112 medals is similar to the total claimed by Team USA in 2021. The United States team has medals projected in 28 different sports in the Virtual Medal Table, one sport fewer than the country’s own Olympic record of 29 which was set in Tokyo. Athletics and swimming are still the key to success though with just under half of US medals projected to be won in those two sports.
China
(Paris 2024: 86, Tóquio 2020: 89)
At the Tokyo Olympics, China recovered from its total of 70 medals at the Rio Olympics, its lowest since 2004. Final Gracenote projections for Paris 2024 suggest that China will produce a similar performance to three years ago. Diving, shooting, swimming, table tennis, artistic gymnastics and badminton are China’s key medal-winning sports but 20 different sports have a top-three Chinese competitor according to the VMT. China’s projected gold medal total of 34 means that it may be a threat to the United States’ position as the winner of most golds in Paris.
Grã-Bretanha
(Paris 2024: 63, Tóquio 2020: 64)
The final Gracenote Virtual Medal Table for Paris 2024 suggests that Great Britain can sustain its winning performance of 60 or more medals for a fourth successive Olympic Summer Games. British success over the past three Summer Olympics has been built on having medal winners in at least 20 sports. Gracenote’s final VMT forecast has British medal winners in 21 different sports, suggesting that this trend is set to continue. Prior to the 2012 Olympic Games, Great Britain had not won medals in at least 20 sports for over 100 years, since hosting in 1908.
França
(Paris 2024: 60, Tóquio 2020: 33)
Gracenote’s final forecast projects that host nation France will increase its medal total significantly, nearly tripling its number of gold medals in comparison to the Tokyo Olympics. Summer Olympic success for France has been achieved in 15 to 19 different sports at each Olympics this century but medals are projected in 28 different sports in Paris. This would be a new French record. At the Paris 2024 Games, France is expected to have its best Olympic Games for 124 years, since winning 115 medals when hosting in 1900.
Australia
(Paris 2024: 54 medalhas, Tóquio 2020: 46)
After the disappointing Olympics of 2012 and 2016, Australia will again improve in Paris. Gracenote expects Australia to win over 40 medals for the sixth time in the last eight Olympics and more than 50 for the first time for 24 years. If Australia wins 54 medals as forecast, it will be the country’s best Olympic performance since hosting Sydney 2000. Achieving this will depend to a great extent on the success of the swimming team.
Medalha virtual Tabela 1-10
| NOC | País | Ouro | Prata | Bronze | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estados Unidos |  | 39 | 32 | 41 | 112 |
| China |  | 34 | 27 | 25 | 86 |
| Grã-Bretanha |  | 17 | 20 | 26 | 63 |
| França |  | 27 | 21 | 12 | 60 |
| Australia |  | 15 | 23 | 16 | 54 |
| Japão |  | 13 | 13 | 21 | 47 |
| Itália |  | 11 | 19 | 16 | 46 |
| Alemanha |  | 11 | 12 | 12 | 35 |
| Países Baixos |  | 16 | 10 | 8 | 34 |
| República da Coreia |  | 9 | 4 | 13 | 26 |
Países classificados de 6 a 10 no Quadro de Medalhas Virtual
Japão
(Paris 2024: 47, Tóquio 2020: 58)
After its record-breaking Olympics in Tokyo, Japan is expected to fall short of that performance in Paris. Gracenote’s final Virtual Medal Table has the Japanese team winning 11 fewer medals than three years ago. The number of gold medals likely to be won by Japan is expected to be more than halved, from 27 to 13. Medals are forecast in 17 different sports, well short of Japan’s record of 21 from Tokyo 2020. However, 47 medals would represent Japan’s second best Summer Games performance, after Tokyo 2020.
Itália
(Projeção Paris 2024: 46, Tóquio 2020: 40)
A Itália teve sua melhor Olimpíada de todos os tempos em Tóquio, mas o Quadro de Medalhas Virtual final da Gracenote projeta um desempenho ainda melhor em Paris 2024. Impulsionada por um potencial melhor desempenho de todos os tempos na piscina, a Itália deverá ganhar um recorde de 46 medalhas em 21 esportes diferentes, o melhor de todos os tempos, superando o recorde de 40 medalhas em 19 esportes em Tóquio.
Alemanha
(Paris 2024: 35, Tóquio 2020: 37)
O total de medalhas da Alemanha diminuiu em seis dos sete Jogos Olímpicos de Verão desde a reunificação, sendo que apenas Londres 2012 proporcionou uma pausa. Paris 2024 pode continuar essa tendência, com o Quadro de Medalhas Virtual final da Gracenote projetando 35 medalhas para a Alemanha, duas a menos do que em Tóquio. A previsão é de que a equipe alemã ganhe medalhas em 18 esportes diferentes, o segundo menor número desde a reunificação, depois de Londres 2012. A Alemanha não domina mais nenhum esporte em particular e a VMT não prevê mais do que três medalhas para a equipe alemã em um único esporte.
Países Baixos
(Paris 2024: 34, Tóquio 2020: 36)
Three years after its best Summer Olympics in Tokyo, the Dutch team is forecast to produce a similar performance in Paris. Gracenote’s final forecast has the Dutch team breaking the country’s gold medal record of 12, set at the Sydney 2000 Olympics but just falling short of the total medal record of 36 from the same Games. At four of the last six Olympic Games, the Netherlands has won medals in 11 to 13 sports. The 2024 Summer Games look like being a similar story with Gracenote forecasting medals in 12 different sports. However, success this year will primarily depend on three sports – rowing, cycling – track and athletics – which, between them, are expected to deliver half of the medals for the Netherlands.
República da Coreia
(Paris 2024: 26, Tóquio 2020: 20)
Tokyo 2020 was a disappointing Olympics for the Republic of Korea. The 20 medals including six golds were both the lowest totals for the country since it won 19 and six respectively at the Los Angeles Olympics of 1984. The prospects for Paris 2024 look better with Korean competitors forecast to win 26 medals, including nine golds, across 11 different sports. This would be Korea’s best Olympic medal winning performance since 2012 and it would put Korea back into the top-10 medal winning nations.
Medalha virtual Tabela 11-20
| NOC | País | Ouro | Prata | Bronze | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada |  | 7 | 9 | 5 | 21 |
| Hungria |  | 7 | 6 | 7 | 20 |
| Brazil |  | 8 | 4 | 6 | 18 |
| Espanha |  | 5 | 5 | 8 | 18 |
| Polônia |  | 3 | 7 | 7 | 17 |
| Dinamarca |  | 5 | 5 | 4 | 14 |
| Turquia |  | 4 | 5 | 5 | 14 |
| Nova Zelândia |  | 4 | 4 | 6 | 14 |
| Ucrânia |  | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 |
| Etiópia |  | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
Tabela de medalhas virtuais 21-30
| NOC | País | Ouro | Prata | Bronze | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quênia |  | 5 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| Suécia |  | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| Bélgica |  | 4 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| Georgia |  | 3 | 4 | 5 | 12 |
| Uzbequistão |  | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 |
| Suíça |  | 0 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Irã |  | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| Irlanda |  | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| Cazaquistão |  | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| Jamaica |  | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10 |
Sobre a Mesa de Medalhas Virtual da Gracenote
The Gracenote Virtual Medal Table is a statistical model based on individual and team results in previous Olympics Games, World Championships and World Cups to forecast the most likely gold, silver and bronze medal winners by country. This information is presented in simple to understand projections and seamless data feeds that enable broadcasters, media publishers and pay TV operators to deliver unique Olympic-focused stories across Web, mobile and broadcast properties. https://beta.nielsen.com/news-center/2024/virtual-medal-table-forecast/
About Gracenote
A Gracenote é a unidade de negócios de soluções de conteúdo da Nielsen que fornece metadados de entretenimento, IDs de conteúdo e ofertas relacionadas aos principais criadores, distribuidores e plataformas do mundo. A tecnologia Gracenote permite recursos avançados de navegação e descoberta de conteúdo, garantindo que os consumidores possam se conectar facilmente às músicas, programas de TV, filmes e esportes que amam, ao mesmo tempo em que fornece análises de conteúdo poderosas, simplificando decisões comerciais complexas.
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