금요일 2024 파리 올림픽 개막식을 며칠 앞두고, 닐슨의 Gracenote가 2024 올림픽의 최종 가상 메달 테이블(VMT) 예측을 발표했습니다. 2020 도쿄 하계 올림픽 이후 주요 글로벌 대회와 대륙별 대회의 결과 데이터를 고려하여, Gracenote는 제13회 올림피아드 대회 참가 국가와 선수들의 금메달, 은메달, 동메달 수를 예상했습니다.
Almost all Russian and Belarussian competitors have been absent from international competitions since February 2022. Any who take part in Paris 2024 without results in this period cannot be predicted accurately. However, there is limited participation of these athletes and we expect the Virtual Medal Table to be the usual accurate reflection of the National Olympic Committees’ potential Olympic performance based on the data that we have.
스냅샷
Gracenote’s VMT forecast projects the United States to win the most medals overall at Paris 2024 (112). If Team USA meets this expectation, it would mark the team’s eighth successive placement at the top of the final Summer Games medal table.
China is projected to finish second on total medals but could challenge the United States for first place on gold medals. The 86 medals currently forecast for China would be three fewer than the country’s total of 89 in Tokyo three years ago. The 34 gold medals forecast would be four down on China’s total of 38 three years ago.
Great Britain is also expected to produce a similar performance to the last Olympics with the Gracenote VMT forecasting one British medal fewer than Tokyo’s 64. Gold medals could be significantly down though as the British team is projected to win 17 golds in Paris.
개최국 프랑스는 도쿄에서 총 33개의 메달을 획득한 것에 비해 전체 메달 수가 크게 늘어날 것으로 예상됩니다. 가상 메달 테이블에 따르면 프랑스는 미국과 중국에 이어 금메달 3위에 올랐으며, 최종 예상 총 27개의 금메달이 달성된다면 지난 올림픽에서 프랑스의 총 메달 수에 크게 미치지 못할 것으로 예상됩니다.
Australia is expected to be fifth on the total medal table. The 54 medals forecasted by the Gracenote Virtual Medal Table would be the country’s most for 24 years, since winning a record 58 when hosting Sydney 2000.
러시아 및 벨라루스 선수
러시아와 벨라루스 선수들은 2022년 2월부터 거의 모든 올림픽 종목에서 국제 대회 출전이 금지되었기 때문에, 2024 파리 올림픽에서 개인 중립 선수로 참가하는 선수들의 잠재적인 경기력을 정확하게 평가하는 것은 두 나라의 테니스 선수들처럼 어느 정도 정상적인 경쟁을 해온 선수들이 아니라면 불가능합니다. 하지만 파리에서 이들 국가의 선수 수는 극도로 제한되어 있는 것으로 보이며, 따라서 그레이스노트 가상 메달 테이블은 저희가 보유한 데이터를 바탕으로 현재 상황을 정확하게 반영하고 있습니다.
메달 획득 상위 5개 국가
미국
(Paris 2024 projection: 112 medals, Tokyo 2020: 113)
The U.S. is expected to once again top the Summer Games Virtual Medal Table in Paris. The current Gracenote projection of 112 medals is similar to the total claimed by Team USA in 2021. The United States team has medals projected in 28 different sports in the Virtual Medal Table, one sport fewer than the country’s own Olympic record of 29 which was set in Tokyo. Athletics and swimming are still the key to success though with just under half of US medals projected to be won in those two sports.
중국
(Paris 2024: 86, Tokyo 2020: 89)
At the Tokyo Olympics, China recovered from its total of 70 medals at the Rio Olympics, its lowest since 2004. Final Gracenote projections for Paris 2024 suggest that China will produce a similar performance to three years ago. Diving, shooting, swimming, table tennis, artistic gymnastics and badminton are China’s key medal-winning sports but 20 different sports have a top-three Chinese competitor according to the VMT. China’s projected gold medal total of 34 means that it may be a threat to the United States’ position as the winner of most golds in Paris.
영국
(Paris 2024: 63, Tokyo 2020: 64)
The final Gracenote Virtual Medal Table for Paris 2024 suggests that Great Britain can sustain its winning performance of 60 or more medals for a fourth successive Olympic Summer Games. British success over the past three Summer Olympics has been built on having medal winners in at least 20 sports. Gracenote’s final VMT forecast has British medal winners in 21 different sports, suggesting that this trend is set to continue. Prior to the 2012 Olympic Games, Great Britain had not won medals in at least 20 sports for over 100 years, since hosting in 1908.
프랑스
(Paris 2024: 60, Tokyo 2020: 33)
Gracenote’s final forecast projects that host nation France will increase its medal total significantly, nearly tripling its number of gold medals in comparison to the Tokyo Olympics. Summer Olympic success for France has been achieved in 15 to 19 different sports at each Olympics this century but medals are projected in 28 different sports in Paris. This would be a new French record. At the Paris 2024 Games, France is expected to have its best Olympic Games for 124 years, since winning 115 medals when hosting in 1900.
호주
(파리 2024: 54개 메달, 도쿄 2020: 46개)
After the disappointing Olympics of 2012 and 2016, Australia will again improve in Paris. Gracenote expects Australia to win over 40 medals for the sixth time in the last eight Olympics and more than 50 for the first time for 24 years. If Australia wins 54 medals as forecast, it will be the country’s best Olympic performance since hosting Sydney 2000. Achieving this will depend to a great extent on the success of the swimming team.
가상 메달 표 1-10
| NOC | 국가 | 골드 | 실버 | 브론즈 | 합계 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 미국 |  | 39 | 32 | 41 | 112 |
| 중국 |  | 34 | 27 | 25 | 86 |
| 영국 |  | 17 | 20 | 26 | 63 |
| 프랑스 |  | 27 | 21 | 12 | 60 |
| 호주 |  | 15 | 23 | 16 | 54 |
| 일본 |  | 13 | 13 | 21 | 47 |
| 이탈리아 |  | 11 | 19 | 16 | 46 |
| 독일 |  | 11 | 12 | 12 | 35 |
| 네덜란드 |  | 16 | 10 | 8 | 34 |
| 대한민국 |  | 9 | 4 | 13 | 26 |
가상 메달 순위표에서 6~10위 국가들
일본
(Paris 2024: 47, Tokyo 2020: 58)
After its record-breaking Olympics in Tokyo, Japan is expected to fall short of that performance in Paris. Gracenote’s final Virtual Medal Table has the Japanese team winning 11 fewer medals than three years ago. The number of gold medals likely to be won by Japan is expected to be more than halved, from 27 to 13. Medals are forecast in 17 different sports, well short of Japan’s record of 21 from Tokyo 2020. However, 47 medals would represent Japan’s second best Summer Games performance, after Tokyo 2020.
이탈리아
(파리 2024년 전망: 46, 도쿄 2020: 40)
도쿄 올림픽에서 역대 최고 성적을 거둔 이탈리아는 2024 파리 올림픽에서 더 좋은 성적을 거둘 것으로 그레이스노트의 최종 가상 메달 테이블은 예상하고 있습니다. 이탈리아는 수영에서 역대 최고 성적을 거둘 가능성에 힘입어 역대 최고인 21개 종목에서 46개의 메달을 획득해 도쿄 올림픽에서 기록한 19개 종목 40개 메달 기록을 경신할 것으로 예상됩니다.
독일
(Paris 2024: 35, Tokyo 2020: 37)
독일은 통일 이후 열린 7번의 하계 올림픽 중 6번의 올림픽에서 메달 총량이 감소했으며, 2012 런던 올림픽에서만 숨통이 트였습니다. 2024 파리 올림픽에서도 이러한 추세가 이어질 것으로 예상되는 가운데, 그레이스노트의 최종 가상 메달 테이블에 따르면 독일은 도쿄 올림픽보다 2개 적은 35개의 메달을 획득할 것으로 예상됩니다. 독일 대표팀은 18개 종목에서 메달을 획득할 것으로 예상되는데, 이는 2012 런던 올림픽에 이어 통일 이후 두 번째로 낮은 수치입니다. 독일은 더 이상 특정 종목에서 우위를 점하지 못하고 있으며, 독일 대표팀은 단일 종목에서 3개 이상의 메달을 획득하지 못할 것으로 VMT는 예상하고 있습니다.
네덜란드
(Paris 2024: 34, Tokyo 2020: 36)
Three years after its best Summer Olympics in Tokyo, the Dutch team is forecast to produce a similar performance in Paris. Gracenote’s final forecast has the Dutch team breaking the country’s gold medal record of 12, set at the Sydney 2000 Olympics but just falling short of the total medal record of 36 from the same Games. At four of the last six Olympic Games, the Netherlands has won medals in 11 to 13 sports. The 2024 Summer Games look like being a similar story with Gracenote forecasting medals in 12 different sports. However, success this year will primarily depend on three sports – rowing, cycling – track and athletics – which, between them, are expected to deliver half of the medals for the Netherlands.
대한민국
(Paris 2024: 26, Tokyo 2020: 20)
Tokyo 2020 was a disappointing Olympics for the Republic of Korea. The 20 medals including six golds were both the lowest totals for the country since it won 19 and six respectively at the Los Angeles Olympics of 1984. The prospects for Paris 2024 look better with Korean competitors forecast to win 26 medals, including nine golds, across 11 different sports. This would be Korea’s best Olympic medal winning performance since 2012 and it would put Korea back into the top-10 medal winning nations.
가상 메달 표 11-20
| NOC | 국가 | 골드 | 실버 | 브론즈 | 합계 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 캐나다 |  | 7 | 9 | 5 | 21 |
| 헝가리 |  | 7 | 6 | 7 | 20 |
| 브라질 |  | 8 | 4 | 6 | 18 |
| 스페인 |  | 5 | 5 | 8 | 18 |
| 폴란드 |  | 3 | 7 | 7 | 17 |
| 덴마크 |  | 5 | 5 | 4 | 14 |
| Turkiye |  | 4 | 5 | 5 | 14 |
| 뉴질랜드 |  | 4 | 4 | 6 | 14 |
| 우크라이나 |  | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 |
| 에티오피아 |  | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
가상 메달 표 21-30
| NOC | 국가 | 골드 | 실버 | 브론즈 | 합계 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 케냐 |  | 5 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| Sweden |  | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 벨기에 |  | 4 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 조지아 |  | 3 | 4 | 5 | 12 |
| 우즈베키스탄 |  | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 |
| 스위스 |  | 0 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| 이란 |  | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 아일랜드 |  | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 카자흐스탄 |  | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 자메이카 |  | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10 |
그레이스노트 가상 메달 테이블 정보
The Gracenote Virtual Medal Table is a statistical model based on individual and team results in previous Olympics Games, World Championships and World Cups to forecast the most likely gold, silver and bronze medal winners by country. This information is presented in simple to understand projections and seamless data feeds that enable broadcasters, media publishers and pay TV operators to deliver unique Olympic-focused stories across Web, mobile and broadcast properties. https://beta.nielsen.com/news-center/2024/virtual-medal-table-forecast/
Gracenote 소개
Gracenote는 세계 유수의 크리에이터, 배포자 및 플랫폼에 엔터테인먼트 메타데이터, 콘텐츠 ID 및 관련 서비스를 제공하는 닐슨의 콘텐츠 솔루션 사업부입니다. Gracenote 기술은 고급 콘텐츠 탐색 및 검색 기능을 통해 소비자가 좋아하는 음악, TV 프로그램, 영화, 스포츠에 쉽게 연결할 수 있도록 지원하는 동시에 강력한 콘텐츠 분석을 제공하여 복잡한 비즈니스 의사 결정을 보다 간단하게 만들어 줍니다.
닐슨 소개
Nielsen shapes the world’s media and content as a global leader in audience measurement, data and analytics. Through our understanding of people and their behaviors across all channels and platforms, we empower our clients with independent and actionable intelligence so they can connect and engage with their audiences—now and into the future. Nielsen operates around the world in more than 55 countries. Learn more at www.nielsen.com and connect with us on social media (Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook and Instagram).
