Dengan hanya 30 hari tersisa hingga upacara pembukaan Olimpiade Paris, Gracenote dari Nielsen merilis prakiraan Tabel Medali Virtual (VMT) terbarunya untuk Olimpiade 2024. Dengan mempertimbangkan data hasil yang tersedia dari kompetisi global dan kontinental utama sejak Olimpiade Musim Panas 2021, Gracenote telah memproyeksikan jumlah medali emas, perak, dan perunggu untuk negara dan atlet yang berpartisipasi di Olimpiade XXXIII. Perkiraan ini akan diperbarui sekali lagi sebelum Olimpiade dimulai, sekitar tiga hari sebelum upacara pembukaan Olimpiade Paris.
Almost all Russian and Belarussian competitors have been absent from international
competitions since February 2022. Any who take part in Paris 2024 without results in this period cannot be predicted accurately. However, it appears that there will be limited participation of these athletes and we expect the Virtual Medal Table to be the usual accurate reflection of the NOCs based on the data that we have.
Jepretan
Gracenoteโs VMT forecast projects the United States to win the most medals overall at Paris 2024 (123). If Team USA meets this expectation, it would mark the team’s eighth successive placement at the top of the final Summer Games medal table.
China is projected to finish second on total medals but should challenge the United States for first place on gold medals. The 87 medals currently forecast for China would be two fewer than the countryโs total in Tokyo two years ago. The 36 gold medals forecast would be two down on China’s total of 38 three years ago.
Great Britain is also expected to produce a similar performance to the last Olympics with the Gracenote VMT forecasting two fewer British medals than Tokyo’s 64. Gold medals could be significantly down though as the British team is projected to win 14 golds in Paris.
Host nation France should sharply increase its overall medal haul in comparison to the 33 total medals won in Tokyo. The Virtual Medal Table puts France in third place on gold medals, behind the United States and China, and its forecast total of 29 gold medals would be not far short of Franceโs total number of medals at the last Olympics.
Australia is expected to be fifth on the total medal table. The 48 medals forecasted by the Gracenote Virtual Medal Table would be the country’s most for 20 years, since winning 50 at Athens 2004.
Atlet Rusia dan Belarusia
With competitors from Russia and Belarus being banned from international competition in almost all Olympic sports since February 2022, it is not possible to assess potential performance accurately for those participating as Individual Neutral Athletes at Paris 2024 unless they have been competing more or less normally like, for example, the tennis players from the two countries. However, it appears that the number of competitors from these countries will be severely limited in Paris and the Gracenote Virtual Medal Table is therefore representing the current situation accurately given the data which we have.
Lima negara pemenang medali teratas
Amerika Serikat
(Paris 2024 projection: 123 medals, Tokyo 2020: 113)
AS diperkirakan akan kembali memuncaki Tabel Medali Virtual Olimpiade Musim Panas di Paris. Proyeksi Gracenote saat ini sebesar 123 medali adalah 10 lebih banyak dari total yang diklaim oleh Tim AS pada tahun 2021. Jika total ini tercapai, ini akan menjadi prestasi medali AS terbaik sejak Olimpiade Los Angeles 1984 yang mengalami boikot. Tim Amerika Serikat memiliki proyeksi medali di 26 cabang olahraga yang berbeda di Tabel Medali Virtual, tiga cabang olahraga lebih sedikit dari rekor Olimpiade negara itu sendiri, yaitu 29 medali yang dicetak di Tokyo. Atletik dan renang masih menjadi kunci kesuksesan, meskipun hanya kurang dari setengah medali AS yang diproyeksikan akan dimenangkan dalam dua cabang olahraga tersebut.
Cina
(Paris 2024: 87, Tokyo 2020: 89)
At the Tokyo Olympics, China recovered from its total of 70 medals at the Rio Olympics, its lowest since 2004. Current Gracenote projections from the results which Chinese athletes are recording suggests that China will produce a similar performance to three years ago. Diving, shooting, swimming, weightlifting, table tennis, artistic gymnastics and badminton are Chinaโs key medal-winning sports but 21 sports have a top-three Chinese competitor according to the VMT. China’s projected gold medal total of 36 means that it should be a threat to the United States’ position as the winner of most golds in Paris.
Britania Raya
(Paris 2024: 62, Tokyo 2020: 64)
Tabel Medali Virtual Gracenote untuk Paris 2024 menunjukkan bahwa Inggris Raya dapat mempertahankan performa kemenangannya dengan meraih 60 medali atau lebih untuk Olimpiade Musim Panas keempat berturut-turut. Kesuksesan Inggris Raya selama tiga Olimpiade terakhir dibangun dengan memiliki pemenang medali di setidaknya 20 cabang olahraga dan perkiraan VMT saat ini, untuk pemenang medali di 21 cabang olahraga, menunjukkan bahwa hal ini akan terus berlanjut. Sebelum Olimpiade 2012, Inggris Raya memenangkan medali di setidaknya 20 cabang olahraga di London pada tahun 1908, yang merupakan era Olimpiade yang sangat berbeda.
Prancis
(Paris 2024: 56, Tokyo 2020: 33)
Perkiraan saat ini memproyeksikan bahwa negara tuan rumah, Prancis, akan meningkatkan jumlah medali secara signifikan dan hampir tiga kali lipat jumlah medali emasnya dibandingkan dengan Olimpiade Tokyo. Kesuksesan Olimpiade Musim Panas bagi Prancis telah diraih di 15 hingga 19 cabang olahraga berbeda di setiap Olimpiade abad ini, namun medali kini diproyeksikan di 24 cabang olahraga berbeda, sebuah rekor baru bagi Prancis. Pada Olimpiade Paris 2024, Prancis diharapkan dapat meraih prestasi terbaiknya di Olimpiade sejak tahun 1900.
Australia
(Paris 2024: 48 medali, Tokyo 2020: 46)
After the disappointing Olympics of 2012 and 2016, Australia will again improve on its 2021 performance with over 40 medals for the sixth time in the last eight Olympics. If Australia wins 48 medals as currently forecast, it will be the country’s best Olympic performance since Athens 2004. Achieving this will rely on the success of the swimming team.
Tabel Medali Virtual 1-10
| NOC | Negara | Emas | Perak | Perunggu | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amerika Serikat |  | 39 | 32 | 41 | 112 |
| Cina |  | 34 | 27 | 25 | 86 |
| Britania Raya |  | 17 | 20 | 26 | 63 |
| Prancis |  | 27 | 21 | 12 | 60 |
| Australia |  | 15 | 23 | 16 | 54 |
| Jepang |  | 13 | 13 | 21 | 47 |
| Italia |  | 11 | 19 | 16 | 46 |
| Jerman |  | 11 | 12 | 12 | 35 |
| Belanda |  | 16 | 10 | 8 | 34 |
| Republik Korea |  | 9 | 4 | 13 | 26 |
Negara dengan Peringkat 6 hingga 10 di Tabel Medali Virtual
Jepang
(Paris 2024: 46, Tokyo 2020: 58)
After its record-breaking Olympics in Tokyo, Japan is expected to fall short of that performance in Paris. Gracenoteโs latest Virtual Medal Table has the Japanese team winning 12 fewer medals than three years ago. The number of gold medals likely to be won by Japan is expected to be more than halved, from 27 to 12. Medals are forecast in 16 different sports, well short of Japan’s record of 21 from Tokyo 2020.
Italia
(Proyeksi Paris 2024: 46, Tokyo 2020: 40)
Italia meraih prestasi terbaiknya di Olimpiade Tokyo, namun Tabel Medali Virtual Gracenote memproyeksikan performa yang lebih baik di Paris 2024. Didukung oleh potensi penampilan terbaik di kolam renang, Italia diperkirakan akan memenangkan rekor 46 medali di 20 cabang olahraga yang berbeda, enam tempat podium lebih banyak daripada di Tokyo.
Jerman
(Paris 2024: 37, Tokyo 2020: 37)
Total medali Jerman telah menurun di enam dari tujuh Olimpiade Musim Panas sejak penyatuan kembali, dengan hanya London 2012 yang memberikan kelonggaran. Paris 2024 dapat menghentikan tren tersebut dengan Tabel Medali Virtual Gracenote yang memproyeksikan 37 medali, sama seperti di Tokyo. Tim Jerman diperkirakan akan memenangkan medali di 20 cabang olahraga, yang merupakan jumlah medali ketiga terendah sejak reunifikasi, setelah London 2012 dan Tokyo 2020. Jerman tidak lagi mendominasi cabang olahraga tertentu dan tidak lebih dari tiga medali untuk tim Jerman diperkirakan oleh VMT dalam satu cabang olahraga.
Belanda
(Paris 2024: 34, Tokyo 2020: 36)
Two years after its best Summer Olympics in Tokyo, the Dutch team is forecast to produce a similar performance in Paris next year and perhaps set more records. Our latest forecast has the Dutch breaking the country’s gold medal record of 12, set at the Sydney 2000 Olympics. At four of the last six Olympic Games, the Netherlands has won medals in 11 to 13 sports and the 2024 Summer Games look like being a similar story. However, success this year will primarily depend on three sports; rowing, cycling – track and athletics.
Republik Korea
(Paris 2024: 29, Tokyo 2020: 20)
Tokyo 2020 was a disappointing Olympics for the Republic of Korea. The 20 medals including six golds were both the lowest totals for the country since it won 19 and six respectively at the Los Angeles Olympics of 1984. The prospects for Paris 2024 look better with Korean competitors forecast to win 29 medals, including eight golds. This would be Korea’s best Olympic performance since 2012.
Tabel Medali Virtual 11-20
| NOC | Negara | Emas | Perak | Perunggu | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kanada |  | 7 | 9 | 5 | 21 |
| Hongaria |  | 7 | 6 | 7 | 20 |
| Brasil |  | 8 | 4 | 6 | 18 |
| Spanyol |  | 5 | 5 | 8 | 18 |
| Polandia |  | 3 | 7 | 7 | 17 |
| Denmark |  | 5 | 5 | 4 | 14 |
| Turkiye |  | 4 | 5 | 5 | 14 |
| Selandia Baru |  | 4 | 4 | 6 | 14 |
| Ukraina |  | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 |
| Ethiopia |  | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
Tabel Medali Virtual 21-30
| NOC | Negara | Emas | Perak | Perunggu | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenya |  | 5 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| Swedia |  | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| Belgia |  | 4 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| Georgia |  | 3 | 4 | 5 | 12 |
| Uzbekistan |  | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 |
| Swiss |  | 0 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Iran |  | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| Irlandia |  | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| Kazakhstan |  | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| Jamaika |  | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10 |
Tentang Tabel Medali Virtual Gracenote
Tabel Medali Virtual Gracenote adalah model statistik yang didasarkan pada hasil individu dan tim di Olimpiade, Kejuaraan Dunia, dan Piala Dunia sebelumnya untuk memprediksi kemungkinan besar pemenang medali emas, perak, dan perunggu berdasarkan negara. Informasi ini disajikan dalam prediksi yang mudah dipahami dan umpan data tanpa batas yang memungkinkan penyiar, penerbit media, dan operator TV berbayar untuk menyajikan cerita unik yang berfokus pada Olimpiade di seluruh properti Web, seluler, dan siaran.
About Gracenote
Gracenote adalah unit bisnis solusi konten Nielsen yang menyediakan metadata hiburan, ID konten, dan penawaran terkait kepada para kreator, distributor, dan platform terkemuka di dunia. Teknologi Gracenote memungkinkan navigasi konten yang canggih dan kemampuan penemuan yang memastikan konsumen dapat dengan mudah terhubung dengan musik, acara TV, film, dan olahraga yang mereka sukai sambil memberikan analisis konten yang kuat sehingga keputusan bisnis yang kompleks menjadi lebih sederhana.
Tentang Nielsen
Nielsen shapes the world’s media and content as a global leader in audience measurement, data and analytics. Through our understanding of people and their behaviors across all channels and platforms, we empower our clients with independent and actionable intelligence so they can connect and engage with their audiencesโnow and into the future. Nielsen operates around the world in more than 55 countries. Learn more at www.nielsen.com and connect with us on social media (Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook and Instagram).
